UAB vs Southern Miss 11/3/2012

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with UAB winning 49% of simulations, and Southern Miss 51% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. UAB commits fewer turnovers in 43% of simulations and they go on to win 62% when they take care of the ball. Southern Miss wins 66% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Austin Brown is averaging 271 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (35% chance) then he helps his team win 67%. Desmond Johnson is averaging 56 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (26% chance) then he helps his team win 66%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is SMISS -4.5
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